Bayesian Modeling and Test Planning for Multi-phase Reliability Assessment

Speaker Name: 
Kassandra Fronczyk
Speaker Title: 
Applied Statistician
Speaker Organization: 
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Institute for Defense Analyses
Start Time: 
Monday, February 26, 2018 - 4:00pm
End Time: 
Monday, February 26, 2018 - 5:00pm
Juhee Lee


We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to assess the reliability of a family of vehicles, based on the development of the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV). The proposed model effectively combines information across three phases of testing and across common vehicle components. The analysis yields estimates of failure rates for specific failure modes and vehicles as well as an overall estimate of the failure rate for the family of vehicles. We are also able to obtain estimates of how well vehicle modifications between test phases improve failure rates. In addition to using all data to improve on current assessments of reliability and reliability growth, we illustrate how to leverage the information learned from the three phases to determine appropriate specifications for subsequent testing that will demonstrate if the reliability meets a given reliability threshold.