Understanding
Interactions Between Wild and Escaped Cultured Atlantic Salmon (NMFS
2001-2003). Collaborators: Prof. A. Rosenberg (University of New
Hampshire), Dr. A. Cooper (University of New Hampshire) and Ms. Janet
Blanquies.
In November
of 2000, the Gulf of Maine distinct population segment of Atlantic
salmon was listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act.
Following that listing, the focus is now on efforts to protect these
depleted populations of Atlantic salmon and their habitat. Existing
aquaculture operations have been identified as a threat to the
continued existence and recovery of these endangered populations. A
large part of this concern is based on the concern over interactions
between the wild fish and escaped farmed fish. Although the numbers
of escaped fish intercepted in the wild rivers is small relative to
the number of fish being cultured in hatcheries and marine cages, it
can be a very high percentage of the actual returns to a river in any
given year. No detailed quantitative analysis of the potential
impacts on cultured fish interacting with wild fish has been
conducted. This is necessary in order to prioritize this concern
during the recovery planning process and to determine the appropriate
management action in response to this potential threat. Our
objectives are (1) To identify the range of potential interactions
between natural fish and escaped aquaculture fish. (2) To explore the
impacts of different mortality rates on the recovery potential of
wild Atlantic salmon populations.
Ecological Detection and
Disease Outbreaks (DARPA, NSF 2003-06). Collaborator: Dan Merl and
Leah Johnson, Graduate
Students.
The study of
disease using mathematical models has a long and rich history. Much
interesting and new mathematics has been motivated by disease,
because the problems are inherently nonlinear and multidimensional.
On the other hand, the emergence of new diseases, the re-emergence of
older diseases, and the potential of bioterrorism require that the
mathematics be not only interesting and new, but applied and
applicable. Examples include the dynamics of HIV/AIDS, epidemic
behavior of hepatitis C, the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and
BSE in the UK, the potential of smallpox as a bioterrorist agent, and
malaria. In most cases of disease outbreak or emergence, learning
about the parameters of the disease will occur as it progresses.
Thus, the questions will sit at the intersection of the biology of
disease, modeling, and analysis of data. This proposal seeks funds to
apply the process of ecological detection, in which different models
compete as explanations of process and the data arbitrates the
outcome, to emerging or re emerging disease. The mathematical theory
of disease leads to fundamental characterizations such as the basic
reproductive rate of the disease, the critical number of susceptibles
for infectives to initially spread, and the number of infectives in
the population at the time that the first infection/death is
discovered. These in turn depend on fundamental population
parameters, and those are the focus of the proposed work. Methods
will be developed so that, as a disease progresses, one can learn
about the transmission coefficient of the disease, the distribution
of susceptibles, the level of aggregation in encounters between
susceptibles and infecteds, and the level of detail needed in the
models, for purposes of both understanding and prediction. These
methods will be based on analysis of appropriate differential
equations, computer simulation, and Bayesian statistical updating.
Furthermore, real populations exist in networks, rather than as
randomly mixing individuals, about which two kinds of questions can
be asked. First, given a specific model for the transmission of
disease, what kind of network is created and what are the properties
of that network? Second, given a network of social interactions, what
can be said about the dynamics of the disease on this network? Both
sets of questions will be investigated. Intellectual merit. The
proposed activity will introduce a new set of questions and
techniques into the study of the population biology of disease, and
will simultaneously create both new and applicable mathematics.
Broader impacts. The research team will involve undergraduate and
graduate students, thus advancing discovery while promoting teaching,
training and learning; based on previous experience it is expected
that underrepresented groups will participate in the work. Because
the results have application to a variety of human diseases, they
will be widely disseminated to the medical community. Finally, the
proposed work has implication for the policy when dealing with
bioterrorist attacks and these implications will be examined and
communicated to appropriate Federal and State agencies.
Essential Fish Habitat in a
Life Cycle Context (NMFS
2002-4)
The working hypothesis
for this project is that Essential Fish Habitat must be evaluated in
the the context of the life cycle of the fish and that connection to
the life cycle requires a focus at both the level of the population
and the level of the individual. We are developing models for marine
reserves that take a community context, rather than a single species
context; we are also developing models that can help illucidate the
meaning of essential fish habitat and habitat of particular
concern.
Stock Assessment for
California Sheephead (CDFG 2004). Collaborators: Dr. Suzanne Alonzo
(CSTAR), Ms. Teresa Ish (CSTAR), Ms. Meisha Key (CDFG), Dr. Alec
MacCall (NMF/SCL and CSTAR).
We conducted the first
ever stock assessment for California sheephead (available at the
CSTAR web site) and assembled data for other near-shore species
included in the Marine Life Management Act.
Climate Change, Krill Life
Histories and Krill Fisheries (Lenfest Foundation 2005-2009).
Collaborators: Mr. John Wiedenmann (PhD student), Post-doc Kate
Creswsell
We are
investigating the implications of climate change, particularly
changes in water temperature and the extent and fluctuations of sea
ice, on krill life histories and what this means for krill predators
and the management of krill fisheries.
Oxidative Damage in Diving
Mammals: Connecting Theory and
Experiment (UC MEXUS,
2005-06). Collaborator: Dr. Tania
Zenteno-Savin (CIBNOR, La Paz, Baja Sur California,
Mexico)
In anticipation of a dive, seals produce high levels of antioxidants,
presumably to deal with the cellular perfusion of oxygen after the
dive. We are incorporating such information into behavioral models of
diving and testing these models; we are also working on the
evolutionary ecology of reactive oxygen species.
Life History Variation in
Steelhead Trout and the Implications for Water Management (CalFed
Science Program, 2006-09). Collaborators: PhD student to be named,
Post-docs Will Satterthwaite and David Swank and Dr. Sue Sogard
(NMFS-SCL).
We will
adapt and extend the method of Thorpe et al (1998) -- found in the
eprint list of my Research section -- that combines ultimate and
proximate approaches to life history variation in Atlantic salmon to
steelhead in California. The goal to to be able to relate water flow
(and thus temperature and food ability) to the survival, growth and
life history decisions of steelhead.
The Evolutionary Ecology of Reactive Oxygen Species and Antioxidant Defenses (Royal Society, 2007). Collaborator: Michael Bonsall.
This supported my sabbatical visit to Oxford in spring 2007, and the work that Mike and I did on the evolutionary ecology of stem cells
Ecosystem Consequences of MSC Certification (Northwest Fisheries Science
Center, 2008-10). Collaborators: Phil Levin, Mark Plummer, Jim Wilen, and Kate Richerson.
We are developing methods for understanding the ecosystem and bioeconomic consequences of fishery certification systems
Resiliency of stock-recruitment relationships of Pacific scombroids (Pacific Islands Fishery
Science Research Center, 2008-09). Collaborators: Jon Brodziak and Gerald Dinardo
We are investigating the evolutionary ecology of steepness in spawning-recruitment functions
Behavioral Foraging Model, A Component of the Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research
Program (North Pacific Research Board/NSF, 2008-11). Collaborator: Will Satterthwaite and all the BSIERP folk
We are developing state dependent life history models for how seabirds and mammals respond to variation in food availability